Pediatric primary care services in Manitoba: Is the health of the next generation of children at risk?

Katz, Alan; Bogdanovic, Bogdan; Ekuma, Okechukwu; Soodeen, Ruth-Ann; Enns, Jennifer

doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2012.01.005

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Volume 105, Issue 1 , Pages 84-91, April 2012

Pediatric primary care services in Manitoba: Is the health of the next generation of children at risk?

Alan Katz
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, 408-727 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3, Canada
- Department of Family Medicine, University of Manitoba, Canada
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 408-727 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3P5, Canada
- Corresponding author at: Departments of Community Health Sciences and Family Medicine, University of Manitoba, Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 408, 727 McDermot Ave, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 3P5, Canada. Tel.: +1 204 789 3442; fax: +1 204 789 3910.
Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 408-727 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3P5, Canada
Okechukwu Ekuma
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 408-727 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3P5, Canada
Ruth-Ann Soodeen
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 408-727 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3P5, Canada
Jennifer Enns
- Department of Family Medicine, University of Manitoba, Canada
- Department of Physiology, 432 Basic Medical Sciences Building, 745 Bannatyne Avenue, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0J9, Canada

Received 5 May 2011; received in revised form 5 January 2012; accepted 6 January 2012. published online 03 February 2012.

Abstract

Objectives

Physician resource planning is an important part of health policy, but to date there are no studies measuring the primary care service needs of a particular population. The aim of this study was to project the expected provision of physician services for the pediatric population of one Canadian province for 2020.

Methods

A novel standardized measure of physician service provision, the equivalent services measure, was developed using mathematical modeling. Population projections and past use of services were used to calculate the projected service needs for the pediatric population of Manitoba.

Results

Despite projecting a small increase in the pediatric population (2.8%), our model predicted a decrease of 13.4% in the services that would be provided.

Conclusions

The findings of this study indicate that the health of future generations of children may be at risk. Further research is needed to determine the effect of the reduction in pediatric service provision on the health of the pediatric population.

Keywords: Pediatric, Primary health care, Health human resources, Health policy and planning